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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.