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Seven years ago, it took just eight words to energize a Labour conference and to show the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

In that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Evolution in Position & Settled Debates

Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that forbade re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if survey data indicates many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

However, it’s now Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. While Europe may not be the central crisis of British politics, the cap that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is starting to loosen again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was his primary goal and remains his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.

Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is among those trying to overcome entrenched interior ministry opposition to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing young people can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.

David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines are still in place, there are ways to work around them. One idea would be to announce the start of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Doubts

However, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with America, which he views as signature achievements of his government.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement has been made much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of policy areas, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has led UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is seen by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.

A Bizarre Document and Geopolitical Calculations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe faces cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It includes a single mention to Britain, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from deciding that this makes America an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter and The Ghost from the Past

This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the “option” of remain in a future vote. Indeed, back then, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.

Observers within Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is among a group of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.

Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Danger & A Prudent Reminder

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be prudent for Starmer to remember the impact that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should prise them open himself, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.