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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."